While it may seem simple to project how many students will show up for the first day of class in any school year, school administrators have learned that what they expect may not be what happens.
In the past five years, Carbon School District has experienced some up and down numbers in overall enrollment. In 2011-12 the enrollment at all schools in the district was 3,340, while the next year it jumped to 3,445. In 2013-14 it dropped slightly to 3,423 and then was down nearly 40 students the next year at 3,386. As of Oct. 1 this year the enrollment is up slightly from last year at 3,393.
While general enrollment numbers are good to know, the “bulges” – high numbers of students in one grade level – that show up in the system can be problematic for the school district, particularly when it comes to the size of facilities that are available.
At the Oct. 13 Carbon School District Board meeting, Superintendent Steve Carlsen presented this year’s numbers in various grades to the board as compared to past years, and had some serious concerns about where the district is headed. He showed figures of various class sizes that one year are high and the next year seem to drop, in some cases dramatically.
“We have to wonder what is happening to these students,” he told the board.
For instance overall kindergarten attendance in the district in 2012-13 was 367, a large number. The next year the number dropped off by 15 students to a total of 352 in first grade. Then in 2014-15 that number fell by 30 students going into second grade.
Another example is the first grade class of 2011-12. It had 285 students in it. That class, which is now composed of fifth graders, has 245. While 40 students over the entire district may not seem like much to many people, it is a great decrease, particularly when it comes to weighted pupil assessment payments. As important, some classes don’t shrink much at all while others do. This creates problems with projecting housing requirements, not just with the personnel that might be needed to instruct larger grade levels.
Some schools, such as Castle Heights and Creekview, are bulging at the seams while other schools have room to spare. The district could solve some of this by changing boundaries and busing students, but most parents want their kids to stay in their neighborhood schools, particularly if that is where they started school. Being able to project with some accuracy what class sizes will be over a the course of a students time in public school is critical to providing the right teaching staff and housing accommodations.
Some classes do remain large, too. As these bulges in grade level work their way through the system, the high school could eventually find itself topping out at 1,000 students or beyond at some point.
Changes in the economy of the area may have a great effect on the numbers too. Depending on what happens to the energy industry in Carbon County, or how it is influenced by outside forces, could skew the numbers even more.
The problem is that it is difficult to predict with any confidence what the number of students will be and that causes planning problems for schools.
“With these shifting numbers we may want to look at hiring a demographer to help us with our projections,” Carlsen concluded in the presentation to the board.
[dfads params='groups=4969&limit=1&orderby=random']
[dfads params='groups=1745&limit=1&orderby=random']